Triaconta Weekly #292

The following topics will be addressed in this weekly:

  • Bundle performance
  • Winners & Losers
  • Market overview

Bundle performance
Another exciting week. Has the correction already happened and are we now going back up hard or will we get another dip that will really scare everyone and only after the halving the rise we see every time in Bitcoin history. Stock markets break through all-time highs which also leaves a lot of money for crypto. The gold price however also what like the rising Bitcoin price indicates continued inflation fears. The US Fed is sticking to three interest rate cuts in 2024 and the market is happy with that for now. This week again shows how useful it is to diversify because while most prices are falling, the damage in DeFi and Top 30 is offset by two big risers, Stacks and Aptos.

Big3:
1 Month: +19.76% | 7D: -2.69% | 24H: -1.40%

Top30:
1 Month: +28.56% | 7D: -3.37% | 24H: -0.62%

Penny:
1 Month: +94.23% | 7D: -4.91% | 24H: -1.26%

DeFi:
1 Month: +30.76% | 7D: +0.67% | 24H: +0.04%

Bitcoin halving countdown: 29 days. This figure is a weekly new estimate based on the current blockchain hashrate.

Winners & Losers
Upgrades are now driving positive share price trends. Real developer activity wins out over social media sentiment in recent weeks. Fantom (+50%) expects 2000 transactions per second this spring after the Sonic upgrade. Stacks (+25%) decided with 99% of the vote for the Nakamoto upgrade, which is also going to provide higher processing speed. Speed is nice but actual usage is even better. Aptos ( +26%) notes an increase in daily active users (DAU) of over 400% this month. There are more decliners than risers this week. 0X Protocol (-30%) rise last week proved speculative indeed and the currency loses ⅓ of its yearly increase. DeFi platform Injective (-18%) is back in a sideways move between $30 and $40 after an earlier breakout to near $53. The March 18 Tokenstation launch on Injective for easily launching new tokens, similar to Ethereum and Solana, has not led to higher prices here (yet). Memecoin Pepe (-18%) lost some ground but remains the flavor of the PennyStock bundle.

Market overview

Is the Ethereum Foundation at risk of the same lawsuit as against Ripple? According to Fortune, several U.S. companies have been ordered by the SEC to provide all financial data on their dealings with the Ethereum Foundation as of the Ethereum ICO. In 2018, when XRP and ETH were competing for the #2 spot behind Bitcoin in the rankings, the SEC’s Director of Corporation Finance came out with a speech stating that Bitcoin and Ethereum were not securities. The Ethereum price exploded and although Ripple assumed based on the same reasoning that XRP was also not a security they were sued for this many years later. After years of litigation, the court decided that Ripple was right and XRP as such is not a security and therefore trading on the exchanges is also outside the SEC’s oversight. Crypto regulation even in the US election year of 2024 will unfortunately become more of a political power struggle with countless lawsuits instead of a meaningful consultation with the market on clear rules.

Ripple and the SEC regulator have finally filed a joint schedule for the completion of the lawsuit. This will set the punishment for the one issue on which Ripple lost the case, the direct sale of XRP to some institutional investors. Because this is highly competitively sensitive information, the parties first share the documents with each other and the judge before they become public. There can then be some redacting if anyone sees fit. The SEC is coming out with their claim today, but this will not become public until March 26. Then comes Ripple’s response by April 22 and both sides give their reactions to each other’s proposals on May 6 and that becomes public May 8. Finally, both sides summarize their positions on May 13, which is followed by further responses on May 20. After that, the judge will know enough to make a decision which we expect in June.

Coinbase is coming out with the first CFTC-regulated futures contracts on Dogecoin, Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin in April. Because this implicitly states that these veterans of the crypto market are not securities but commodities (albeit virtual) and thus regulated by regulator CFTC and not by regulator SEC. The latter will surely take action on this. Two lawsuits are currently pending between Coinbase and the SEC. Coinbase is demanding from the SEC clear rules for crypto and the SEC wants to condemn Coinbase for acting against the rules that they believe also apply to crypto. However, they do not want to answer the simple question of who or what should register for Dogecoin with the SEC?!

Bitcoin miners, of course, also see the halving of the block reward approaching and are putting in a final sprint. Even outdated machines are gearing up to help grab the last blocks of 6.25 BTC before the reward is halved to 3.125 BTC in less than a month. As a result, like four years ago, the halving is likely to come sooner than currently predicted.