Triaconta Weekly #283

The following topics will be addressed in this weekly:

  • Bundle performance
  • Winners & Losers
  • Market overview

Bundle performance
Best wishes for 2024 from the entire Triaconta team. The market has not changed much on balance although Bitcoin shot back and forth considerably between a new high at €41,900 and a drop to €37,600 the day after. There is currently a lot of speculation and thus heavy movement due to the decision on the U.S. Bitcoin ETF that may be authorized or delayed or rejected next week probably on Jan. 10. Outside America, though, ETFs are already permitted in several countries and, converted to dollars, over $2 billion went into digital currency ETFs in 2023. That’s more than double from 2022. The last quarter in particular saw a big increase. Surely it is strange that the world’s largest financial market still does not have this instrument.

Below you will find first the bundle of returns over 2023 and then this week’s performance. Note! Past results are no guarantee for the future and never invest money in crypto you cannot afford to lose.

The year 2023

DeFi: +127%

Big3: +111%

Top30: +109%

Penny: +67%

This Week

Big3:
1 Month: -0.02% | 7D: -1.79% | 24H: +0.85%

Top30:
1 Month: +26.25% | 7D: -3.97% | 24H: -0.31%

Penny:
1 Month: +7.73% | 7D: -12.67% | 24H: -1.70%

DeFi:
1 Month: +33.87% | 7D: -4.53% | 24H: +0.41%

Winners & Losers

Internet Computer (+40%) started the year very well. The rise was accompanied by a 130% increase in volume and was even over 70% for a while. Arbitrum (+30%) rose at a slower pace last year compared to others and is now catching up which is also accompanied by a 16% rise to above $10 billion in total value locked on this blockchain. Lido DAO (+21%) is making price patterns that point to a further rise in 2024, according to several analysts. Losers this week included former PennyStock bundle coins Reef (-29%) and MultiversX (-20%) and current PennyStock coin JasmyCoin (-19%). Soon we will revise again so that all bundles will be up to date again.

Market overview

A report by analyst Matrixport predicted an unforeseen rejection of the Bitcoin ETF due to political reasons. The current Democratic president and the SEC chairman are both clearly not fans of crypto. The negative report became a catalyst in the breakdown of the much overleveraged positions. Like a Jenga tower piled too high, it led to forced liquidations that exacerbated the downturn. Nearly $560 million in leveraged long positions – effectively betting on higher prices with borrowed money – was wiped out Wednesday, the highest amount in at least three months. It indicates that the market is going to react violently to the SEC’s decision, whatever it will be.

U.S. Federal Reserve officials agreed at their December policy-setting meeting that interest rates are probably at their peak due to the recent drop in inflation – and that rate cuts may be warranted by 2024. It could become exactly the tailwind that the crypto market needs to continue rising substantially this year. However, past experience also shows that a drop in interest rates usually occurs when the economy is really worse, and that initially leads to lower prices. So timing is very important and unfortunately the document gives exactly this an “unusually high degree of uncertainty.”

The Graph is also called the “Google of Web3” because of its indexing capabilities and processing of data stored on blockchains into useful and reliable information to developers for use in their applications. In 2024, The Graph is going to add AI (Artificial Intelligence) and LLM (Large Language Model) to this so that all blockchain data can be queried in normal human language.

The total capacity of the Bitcoin Lightning Network dipped below 5,000 BTC at the end of the year. The dip is a 10% drop from the network’s peak in March 2023. Lightning allows even smaller amounts (cup of coffee) to be sent quickly and easily and contributes to the scalability and adoption of the Bitcoin blockchain. To enter the Lightning network, users deposit BTC into contracts that then allow BTC to be routed through the network without on-chain fees. Capacity is the maximum amount of money users can send through the Lightning Network. After years of growth, including a doubling of capacity over the past three years, the Lightning Network has stagnated over the past nine months. The rapid rise of BTC did make the dollar value of the capacity increase significantly over the past year. Several major exchanges, including Binance, Kraken and Bitfinex have implemented the Lightning Network, but at most others and even at Coinbase, it remains only promises.